In the shadow of the corona virus, EU massive intervention, and upcoming US presidential election many traders almost forget about “Brexit” unfinished saga.
Britain is officially out of the EU, but the negotiations about further trade agreements are going on. Or at least they should be. With corona spread, everything was put aside, including “EU – Britain” trade agreement talks.
There are numerous signs that the current temporary period (when everything is as it was when Britain was in the EU) will not be prolonged. That means we are just weeks before the final agreement has to be reached.
The end of August or September is the latest date when the announcement of the future trade relationships between the EU and Britain should be made. Otherwise, we will get “HARD” Brexit. And the truth is, that Johnson’s administration will be ok with no agreement at all.
That leads me to an idea to consider building a leveraged position against GBP (in a big way) and EUR (in a smaller way) with USD as the main beneficient (the presidential elections are a bit obstacle).
Short GBP versus EUR and USD (2:1 in favor of USD)
Current Rates [as of 07-22-2020, 09:44 ET]:
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